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(R Z aEP ) ZĢ(QE( (IRvG:T)&6:R!ȥh*6lӈ$SJB%87֐)T`qK@Q@Š(QIۚ-Q@Q@Q@ EP ((4u!&%Q@)(4S p4Sib CIJi+9n *@((QJ)ڴ)QEQERJ(sIKEV%QH)QE(((`QEQE{R( !  d2http://www.belisarius.com4http://www.belisarius.com/~John BoydPhttp://www.d-n-i.net/fcs/boyd_thesis.htm"OODA Loop processhttp://www.belisarius.com/modern_business_strategy/boyd/boyds_ooda_loop.pptz&(whall@unimelb.edu.au6mailto:whall@unimelb.edu.au(Nhttp://www.orgs-evolution-knowledge.netPhttp://www.orgs-evolution-knowledge.net/4Boydhttp://www.belisarius.com/modern_business_strategy/boyd/boyds_ooda_loop.ppt/ 0DArialngs2manll~-a0DComic Sans MSnll~-a0B DTimes New Romanll~-a00DWingdings 2manll~-a0@DVerdanas 2manll~-a0"PDWingdings2manll~-a0 C  .  @n?" dd@  @@`` TL@'    2MAL=W\e| !"#$%&')?$$R$-i ]5_\Fϣɻ$a 0AA ff̙f3|@8fuN ʚ;e8ʚ;g4cdcd -a0pU p= <4dddd8))0l~ <4BdBd8K*0l'9___PPT10 qq6___PPT9&(4?  O  =gF8OASIS SEMINAR  27 JULY 2007 &Time Value of Knowledge  time-based frameworks for Valuing knowledge William P. Hall, PhD Australian Centre for Science, Innovation and Society University of Melbourne whall@unimelb.edu.au Peter Dalmaris, PhD Futureshock Research, Sydney Steven Else, PhD Center for Public-Private Enterprise, Alexandria, VA Christopher Martin, PhD and Wayne Philp, PhD Land Operations Division, DSTO, Edinburgh, SABZF   ? H    &>0 Some questions <What is knowledge? What is an organisation? How is knowledge important to organisations? How can knowledge-intensive organisations value knowledge and knowledge-related activities? How does this value change and depreciate with time? We need a vocabulary for considering how cognition, knowledge and time interact! "=YH         Introduction  My own background evolutionary biology, epistemology, computers, defence industry content and knowledge management emergence of knowledge in complex adaptive systems Background to this project a day of brainstorming at DSTO Land Ops Division biologically based paradigm of organization Karl Popper s epistemology Maturana and Varela s autopoiesis need to gain & maintain strategic power in competition bounded rationality and limits to organisation improving knowledge intensive organisational processes1,=1,  =   A   G  s       FParadigms and today s presentations# RThomas Kuhn s (1962, 1982) concepts scientific paradigms held by communities paradigmatic incommensurability this presentation a product of an emerging community developing a biological theory of organizational knowledge KM consultants/practitioners working in industry most with PhD s academically unaffiliated (but looking for a home) planning a workshop,  Theory, Ontology and Management of Organizational Knowledge , to bring players together the group framework combines several paradigms from the fringes of theories of knowledge and organisationp$Ipu$Ipu)  Epistemology paradigm Karl Popper s (1972) evolutionary epistemology Knowledge is solutions or claims to solutions for problems of life All claims to know are fallible (knowledge is constructed, its truth cannot be proven) Three ontological worlds W1  uninterpreted physics and dynamics of reality W2 - cybernetics of life or the dynamics of subjective experience;  dispositional and  subjective knowledge W3  objectively codified products of knowledge (e.g. the logical contents of DNA molecules, books and libraries, computer memories), the  built environment Knowledge grows through trial & error elimination Pn ! TT/TS ! EE ! Pn+1 /ZZ?Z2ZZZ/1l2@H@H@Z i 2   Knowledge building cycles   Organisational paradigm"    Maturana and Varela (1980) Autopoiesis (cognition) is the definition of life Criteria after Varela et al. (1974) Bounded (demarcated from the environment) Complex (identifiable components within boundary) Mechanistic (driven by cybernetically regulated dissipative processes) Self-referential (boundaries internally determined) Self-produced (intrinsically produces own components) Autonomous (self-produced components are necessary and sufficient to produce the system). Organisations are complex living systems (Hall 2005)qZgZ5Z J"+ <# ) P( D i g  ' ,Bounded rationality & limits to organisation"    Need for knowledge-based decisions & actions Limited time & resources to process information in a relentlessly changing world Bounds to individual rationality (Simon 1955, 1957) Time Cognitive processing power Organisational limitations Arrow (1974) Greiner (1972-1998) Else (2004)p -~  -} .Competition and survival in harsh environments. xLiving systems (i.e., orgs) are dissipative grounded in non-equilibrium thermodynamics Resources to feed dissipative processes are limited degraded by use Competition in a finite world direct competition for resources To grow/survive living systems must maintain at least some strategic control over external environment & competitors knowledge = solution to problems of life-+4!u)-+4!u )  &Achieving strategic power in the world&   .Info transformations in the autopoietic entity  Another view Utility value of knowledge TPattee (1995)  Knowledge is potentially useful information about something. ... By useful information or knowledge I mean information in the evolutionary sense of information for construction and control, measured or selected information, or information ultimately necessary for survival Utility value of knowledge (Cornejo 2003) Direct direct relationship with improvements in processes and operations, usually derived from the knowledge acquired by members of the organization. Indirect When the organization knows that it is benefiting from the acquired knowledge but can t identify the mechanism with clarity, and it therefore can t find a reliable way to measure and value it.* *  p        Value and time vKnowledge value function claim s accuracy reflecting the true state of existence (i.e., the degree that rational actions based on the knowledge produce predictable results) claim s applicability to particular circumstances quality and effects observed when knowledge enacted Time issues relentless advance temporal lag of constructed W2 vs actual W1 old and multiply tested knowledge vs depreciation tacit (uncriticisable) vs explicit issuesL  \R- $OODA cycle times and strategic power$ Concerns in the decision & action cycle rationality bounded in time decision risk intimidation and dithering about uncertainties Danger of stuck OODA ( analysis paralysis ) decisions by  running out of time or  fiat paralysis blocks dependent decisions Knowledge that is not refreshed depreciates Minimax increased observation time gives more detail for a larger perceivable world and a more accurate model of it striving too long to reduce uncertainty gives more time for random events and other actors to create a stochastic future diverging from the intentional future, leading to less relevant world views and less effective control information Advantage from changing world before competitors complete their own OODA loops(PPRP,PPXPOP(R,X  O.+    Conclusions  Delaying decision & action without new observation and orientation depretiates the knowledge on which they depend increasing unpredictability of results of actions Operating inside a competitor s (OODA) loop breaks its external bonds with its environment and creates mismatches between the real world and its perceptions of that world. Initial confusion and disorder can degenerate into internal dissolution that erodes the will to resist. Current world-knowledge doesn t age well, but& Some kinds of knowledge can become more valuable with time. The most valuable knowledge may be  old knowledge that has survived testing in many OODA loops as cultural heritage. Rapid decision also benefits from cultural paradigms that don't have to be revisited often (Boyd) At the tactical level, one needs to deal aggressively with latency issues.\rZHZ0Z`ZrH0`6C L 4>0    Any questions?$0 #Cybernetics and emerging complexity# < Cybernetics" is the regulation, communication and application of control information, beginning at the biophysical level  System is a set of distinguishable components that dynamically interact to facilitate and cybernetically regulate the flow of information, matter or energy  Complex system a system whose emergent behavior cannot readily be predicted from the behaviors of its components (i.e., non-linear/chaotic)  Levels of organisation . Systems may be complex at hierarchically different levels of structure (Salthe 1983)  focal level . A selected level of analysis for observing a system in a hierarchically complex world. 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Mn00  < < # y < 6 ql MP00  < 6{ Mn00   < 6ۊ2 N+100  < < # y < 6Il NEE00 :N    <   DN    <   <B < # > C   < rBzCcDEF3cz3c @`  yDN   H !<   H<B "< # >   #< rBlCmDEFml6m @`  HDN    $<   <B %< # >  p &< rBvCoDEFSvoES @` C DN  '< <B (< # >f )< rBzCeDEFez\*e @`LDN J *< J<B +<B # >Q ,< rBmCnDEFnm8n @`NJDN S -< S<B .<B # >L /< rBzCjDEF=jz=j @`)SDN [ 0< [<B 1<B # >$&% 2< rBlCmDEFml7m @`"[l@N  '+  3<  '+  4< B(C(DELFV' '(('%##!!#$&((&' (,@`'  5< B(C(DELFV& ( (((&%#! !#%'((( (& (,@`?* 6< B(C(DETF^& ((((&$#!  !#%'((' & ,0@`Ks 7< B)C(DELFV' ) )))'%#"!#$&((( (' (,@`b~ 8< B(C(DELFV' (((('%#!!#%&(( &' (,@`.V 9< B(C(DELFV& ((((&%#!!"$&((&& (,@`"  :< B(C(DELFV$ & ((&$#!!#%&(((($ (,@`?* ;< B*C&DETF^& (**(&$#! !#%&&&&& ,0@`Kq << B(C&DELFV&((((&$"!!"$&&&&&(,@`\~* =< B(C&DETF^' (((('%#!!#%&&&&&' ,0@`'O >< B(C(DELFV' ( ((('%#!!#$&((&' (,@`  ?< B*C'DELFV' (**('%#! !#%''' '' (,@`: @< B*C&DELFV'(**('%#!!#$&& $'(,@`Fl A< B*C'DELFV' (**('%#! !#%''%' (,@`Ovy* B< B*C&DETF^' (**('%#!!#%&&%!' ,0@`C C< B)C&DELFV& ( ))(&$"!!#%&&&&& (,@` * D< B*C&DETF^( * ***(&$#!#$&& $( ,0@` - * E< B*C&DETF^( * ***('%#!#$&&$( ,0@`r6 \ * F< B+C$DETF^(*++*(&$#!#$$$$(,0@`9e d * G< B,C%DETF^* , ,,,*('%!#%%% %* ,0@` + * H< B+C#DETF^( *++*(&$# !####( ,0@`  * I< B+C#DETF^) ++++)(&$!####) ,0@`  * J< B-C!DETF^+ ----+)(&  !!!!+ ,0@`N {7 * K< B-C!DETF^+ - ---+)(&  !!!!+ ,0@`> >_ * L< B-C DETF^+ ----+*(&!    & + ,0@`f   M< B/CDELFV. / ///.,*( . 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Mn00  < {< # y |< 6G5 ql MP00  }< 6dL5{ Mn00   ~< 6 C  < rBzCcDEF3cz3c @`  yDN   H <   H<B < # >   < rBlCmDEFml6m @`  HDN    <   <B < # >  p < rBvCoDEFSvoES @` C DN  < <B < # >f < rBzCeDEFez\*e @`LDN J < J<B <B # >Q < rBmCnDEFnm8n @`NJDN S < S<B <B # >L < rBzCjDEF=jz=j @`)SDN [ < [<B <B # >$&% < rBlCmDEFml7m @`"[< < #  @  < 6a5 }q3 NTS00  < 6f5fL M100   < 6dj5 Eq NTS00  < 6(o5f M200   < 6ps5 T N" 00  < 6q5 T N" 00  < 6(}5 TS N" 00  < 6p5 eT N" 00  < 65 -T N" 00  < 6D{5 `  NTS00  < 6`5_Q   Mm00  < < #  y  < 6h5  l MP00  < 65& '  H 0   < < # y < 685 ql MP00  < 6@5{ Mn00   < 652 N+100  < < # y < 6$5Il NEE00 MN  '+  <  '+ DN    <   <B < # > C  < rBzCcDEF3cz3c @`  yDN   H <   H<B < # >   < rBlCmDEFml6m @`  HDN    <   <B < # >  p < rBvCoDEFSvoES @` C DN    <   <B < # > C  < rBzCcDEF3cz3c @`  yDN   H <   H<B < # >   < rBlCmDEFml6m @`  HDN    <   <B < # >  p < rBvCoDEFSvoES @` C DN  < <B < # >f < rBzCeDEFez\*e @`LDN J < J<B <B # >Q < rBmCnDEFnm8n @`NJDN S < S<B <B # >L < rBzCjDEF=jz=j @`)SDN [ < [<B <B # >$&% < rBlCmDEFml7m @`"[l@N  '+  <  '+  < B(C(DELFV' '(('%##!!#$&((&' (,@`'  < B(C(DELFV& ( (((&%#! !#%'((( (& (,@`?* < B(C(DETF^& ((((&$#!  !#%'((' & ,0@`Ks < B)C(DELFV' ) )))'%#"!#$&((( (' (,@`b~ < B(C(DELFV' (((('%#!!#%&(( &' (,@`.V < B(C(DELFV& ((((&%#!!"$&((&& (,@`"  < B(C(DELFV$ & ((&$#!!#%&(((($ (,@`?* < B*C&DETF^& (**(&$#! !#%&&&&& ,0@`Kq < B(C&DELFV&((((&$"!!"$&&&&&(,@`\~* < B(C&DETF^' (((('%#!!#%&&&&&' ,0@`'O < B(C(DELFV' ( ((('%#!!#$&((&' (,@`  < B*C'DELFV' (**('%#! !#%''' '' (,@`: < B*C&DELFV'(**('%#!!#$&& $'(,@`Fl < B*C'DELFV' (**('%#! !#%''%' (,@`Ovy* < B*C&DETF^' (**('%#!!#%&&%!' ,0@`C < B)C&DELFV& ( ))(&$"!!#%&&&&& (,@` * < B*C&DETF^( * ***(&$#!#$&& $( ,0@` - * < B*C&DETF^( * ***('%#!#$&&$( ,0@`r6 \ * < B+C$DETF^(*++*(&$#!#$$$$(,0@`9e d * < B,C%DETF^* , ,,,*('%!#%%% %* ,0@` + * < B+C#DETF^( *++*(&$# !####( ,0@`  * < B+C#DETF^) ++++)(&$!####) ,0@`  * < B-C!DETF^+ ----+)(&  !!!!+ ,0@`N {7 * < B-C!DETF^+ - ---+)(&  !!!!+ ,0@`> >_ * < B-C DETF^+ ----+*(&!    & + ,0@`f   < B/CDELFV. / ///.,*( . (,@`  B < B/CDE`Fj- ////-+*( - 24@`S  * < B1CDETF^- /1111/-+ - ,0@` @ * < B3CDETF^- / 1 331/-,(* - ,0@`  * < B3CDETF^/ 1 33331/.   / ,0@`  * < B2CDETF^/ 1 2 2221/-% & / ,0@`> p& * < B4C DETF^/ 124421/-    / ,0@`  )+ * < B4CDETF^-/02 4 4 20/    -,0@`  + * < B3CDETF^./1333 3 1 / ,  *.,0@`d * < B1CDETF^*,./11/.,#   !*,0@` Q * < B/CDETF^&(*,-//-, &,0@`  * < B+C#DETF^#!$#&#(!*++*(  #!,0@` * < B*C&DETF^!&#&%&&&(%*#*!( &    !&,0@`m t B < B(C*DE`Fj(!*#*$(&&(%(#&!$  !(24@`9 @ a j * < B$C*DETF^&(*!*#($&$%$#$! &,0@` . 4 * < B%C+DETF^*++ +"+#*%(%&#$    $*,0@`  * < B#C-DETF^*+--+!*#(#&!$ *,0@` * < B!C-DETF^*+--+!*!(!&!$ !*,0@` W  < BC-DELFV,----,*(' ,(,@`f  E  < BC/DELFV+-//-+*(& +(,@`B a  * < BC/DETF^.////.,*(" '.,0@` <  < BC/DELFV,-//-,*(& ,(,@` W  < BC/DELFV+-////-+*  +(,@`  D* < BC1DETF^+-/11/-+*   +,0@`   < BC0DELFV+-/00/-+*  +(,@`   < BC1DELFV-/1111/-+  -(,@` M ~* < BC1DETF^-/1111/-+   -,0@`d  < = BC0DELFV+-/00/-+)  +(,@`G c  = BCDELFV      (,@`5 E  = rBcCzDEFcNzcN @` Co  = Z051 ?s o iKnowledge is constructed by living systems TSs may be tacitly embodied in in the structural dispositions of the individual entity, or TSs may be explicitly expressed in words as a hypothesis subject to intersubjective criticism Objective expression and criticism lets our theories die in our stead Through cyclic iteration, tested solutions can approach realityj0 uP_+ T IF@T+X  $HRZ = H|51? p  E iteration 0   H < 0޽h ? ff3333f___PPT10i.!>{+D=' = @B + 0 ^N0 ,$(  ,r , S 5  5 r , S 5 5 H , 0޽h ? ff3333f___PPT10i.0F}f+D=' = @B + 0 ^N0 8$(  8r 8 S 5  5 r 8 S `5E 5 H 8 0޽h ? ff3333f___PPT10i.pv1i+D=' = @B + 0 ^N0 P$(  r  S H7  7 r  S  7 7 H  0޽h ? ff3333f___PPT10i.LR+D=' = @B +5 0 ^N0 44.1@4(  @r @ S 5  7 ~ @ H ?" @ 07 Xt KAchieving strategic power depends critically on learning more, better and faster, and reducing decision cycle times compared to competitors. See http://www.belisarius.com.pU2    >0 @ B7|?"y>$  [A"0(2 2 @ Td7|?#" `2  [O"0(2   @ N7 ?"3 OBSERVE (Results of Test)00(2   @ # 20e0e    B`CDE F @  jJ 8c8c     ?1 d0u0@Ty2 NP'p<'pA)BCD|E||`@S"B  @ N#7 ?"=  nOBSERVATION PARADIGM"0(2  ~  @ H+=?"rR  @ B\)7 ?"g nEXTERNAL INFORMATION"0(2  ~  @ H&?"VH6  @ BL-7 ?"H .  pCHANGING CIRCUMSTANCES"0(2  ~ @ HK|?" rR[  @ N/7 ?"r c`  *UNFOLDING ENVIRONMENTAL RESULTS OF ACTIONS"+0(2+ * ~ @ HK|?"^x>  @ N47 ?"  dORIENT&0(2 ~ @ HK|?"_  ? ~ @ HK|?"^>  @  f :7|?"v.  [D"0(2  @ N7 ?" {DECIDE (Hypothesis)00(2   @@ # 20e0e    B`CDE F @  jJ 8c8c     ?1 d0u0@Ty2 NP'p<'pA)BCD|E||`@S" z @ HC7?"   [O"0(2 %2 @ 3 rLG71?"p S  uCULTURE PARADIGMS PROCESSES"0(2  2 @ ZK71?"u % nDNA GENETIC HERITAGE"0(2  2 @ 3 rO71?"v RP  kMEMORY OF HISTORY"0(2  2 @ 3 rS7|1?#" `%y  _INPUT"0(2  82 @ 3 r@X7|1?"%/ y  ANALYSIS SYNTHESIS>0(2     B @ # lDjJ?" B  @ # lDjJ?" B B !@@ # lDjJ?":"B "@ # lDjJ?"l M B #@ # lDjJ?" OB $@@ # lDjJ?" VB %@ # lDjJ?" K (B &@@ # lDjJ?"y  B '@ # lDjJ?"I IB (@ # lDjJ?"7  =  )@ N_7 ?"& r ACT (Test)0 0(2   *@ N8f7 ?"6y wGUIDANCE AND CONTROL PARADIGM"0(2  ~ +@ HxY|?"\    ,@ Bk7 ?"t   /UNFOLDING INTERACTION WITH EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT"00(20 /  -@ C F0e0e    B CDEF @  jJ 8c8c     ?1 d0u0@Ty2 NP'p<'pA)BCD|E|| 4  @S" }t  .@ S L0e0e    BCDEF @  > 8c8c     ?1 d0u0@Ty2 NP'p<'pA)BCD|E|| @S"   /@ C >0e0e    BCDE F @  jJ 8c8c     ?1 d0u0@Ty2 NP'p<'pA)BCD|E||@S"r"/ 0@ H4t71?   John Boyd's OODA Loop process0>0 >0 H @ 0޽h ? ff3333f___PPT10i.m+D=' = @B + 0 ^N0 TCLC LLHLB(  H H s BCDEF1?&& Qic:K.Wiic) tt   ) ]t : . 4 K c# i n n:4W:@ciQ. LMP@O, H c BCDEF1?77L] E/5XKizu( @ c ~ w c [ ` X T P L J F F F L# L# Lt i un ~  @ P i t | h{ X I L L L z@ uLLP@         `~ H s *y7  7 >R   H3 ~ H BCq DEF`@@-"kA $--GMpUi`UKF<<B)B=Zbbw,c2_Z7t K js \ S Y `F x   7 \ e s yy Z Z ` YP q -0@                      H BCq DEF`@@-"kA $--GMpUi`UKF<<B)B=Zbbw,c2_Z7t K js \ S Y `F x   7 \ e s yy Z Z ` YP q -0@                     0  H H4|71? 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++0+H0 ++0+H0 ++0+H0 ++0+H0 ++0+'H0 ++0+(H0 ++0+,H0 ++0+-H0 ++0+/H0 ++0+0H0 ++0+1H0 ++0+2H0 ++0+7H0 ++0+DH0 ++0+EH0 ++0+FH0 ++0+JH0 ++0+KH0 + 0 ^N0 220?@L2(  L2 L <lv 3  F0    L BjH h  |$Processing Paradigm (may include W3) %0% $  L 6p *,$D 0~ L s *d#   2 L <w̙\4 ,$D 0 `Decision 0   >R   L3 a~~ L BCq DEF`@@-"kA $--GMpUi`UKF<<B)B=Zbbw,c2_Z7t K js \ S Y `F x   7 \ e s yy Z Z ` YP q -0@                      L BCq DEF`@@-"kA $--GMpUi`UKF<<B)B=Zbbw,c2_Z7t K js \ S Y `F x   7 \ e s yy Z Z ` YP q -0@                     0   L B}rF gMedium/ Environment0   L Bt9p  fAutopoietic system0   L B [ c World State 10   2  L 0,$D 0  L 0,$D 0 L 6,,$0 d Perturbation 0 2     L < ,$D 0 J"0     L BБA ,$0 f Transduction" 0      L B<q ,$0 e Observation" 0     L B,  ZMemory0   L B ,$ 0 dClassification0   L BL( <,$ 0 ` Evaluation 0     L B41b,$0 _ Synthesis 0    B L <Dog/ B,$D  0z B L B,$D 0lB LB <DoBlB L <DoBlB L <Do?B L 0Dg / p ,$D  0Xz 1p  L 1p ,$D 0fB L 6Do0<`B L 0D1p B  L 0D p ,$D  0B !L 0D[\p ,$D 0 2 "L <p 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ROODA pB X HDԔ B XB X 0DjJ 4XB X 0DjJ 884XB X 0DjJ 4XB X 0DjJ FF4XB X 0DjJ 4XB X 0DjJ TT4XB X 0DjJ 4XB X 0DjJ bb4XB X 0DjJ 4XB X 0DjJ pp4XB X 0DjJ 4XB X 0DjJ ~~4XB X 0DjJ 4XB X 0DjJ 4XB X 0DjJ 4XB X 0DjJ 4XB X 0DjJ ! ! 4XB  X 0DjJ 4XB !X 0DjJ / / 4XB "X 0DjJ 4XB #X 0DjJ = = 4XB $X 0DjJ 4XB %X 0DjJ K K 4XB &X 0DjJ 4XB 'X 0DjJ Y Y 4XB (X 0DjJ 4XB )X 0DjJ gg4XB *X 0DjJ 4XB +X 0DjJ uu4XB ,X 0DjJ 4XB -X 0DjJ 4XB .X 0DjJ  4XB /X 0DjJ 4XB 0X 0DjJ 4XB 1X 0DjJ 4XB 2X 0DjJ ''4XB 3X 0DjJ 4XB 4X 0DjJ 554XB 5X 0DjJ 4XB 6X 0DjJ CC4 7X BT_% }  Y calendar time  dB 8X <D,: Ip 9X HߺTg eH _temporal divergence dB :X <Di?  ;X H.Umo q /  `temporal convergence XB X 6tC"?y+  ^ now as it inexorably progresses through time00/ jB ?X BDԔY> ` @X HxGmH \V ft2,  AX HDkG HAw ' ,  ht3.P  BX HhGHl    ft4,  CX TG(kH# "` ht1+i,  DX B 7  ^journey thus far  EX BC"?C7  Y the world    FX Bi=   _perceivable world  GX HG H X R ft1,  HX NxGHtjJ k  Schart  IX 63+  S<   JX  fGHjJ "`% g  ]proximal future  KX  fHGEHUjJ "`   ]intended future  LX 6@ S   MX 6x S   NX 6   S   OX NG$HijJ ! E  _perceived present  PX  `GsH<: "`^, ]divergent futures  QX  `DGsHY "`\2 ]divergent futures  RX  `lGqH֗ "`Z8 ]divergent futures  SX HPGH3 "`   @cognitive edge TX TG 9H= "`@\ ht1+j,  UX T|GH/ "`E e  itgs,  VX < G bFrom the paper | X VA޽h ?FRACT081A"`?0 X XGX@XAXBXX X CX HX JX KX OXPXQXRXSXTXUX 33___PPT10i.P:+D=' = @B +׏0 ^N0  @@aD@>(  Dyl  D,$D 0@  D @  D@  D2 sD Z̙vd @"  B  r@ Y ^  [Dm r  D B Ԕ(@  ^immutable past ZB XD s *DԔ@ g@ ^ lB YD <DԔ@ V ] lB ZD <DԔ> Y `2 DB 3 BUCENHZIKQ̙ @ UKUKK`TKK`T" G R D NZv @Ԕ" G 2  tD BdC"?3=  W the world   "2 |D ZCENH$NQ> `T`T`T`T7 . M,$D 0 D 0hg @ 2   zl hR DaK,$D 0 D BG H  XR rt18    D 0h 0t1  time of observation6 2       ~D H8GH JD,$@0 rt28  V D 6E,$0 <t2  orientation & sensemaking6 2    &    * D 0 ,$0 $t4  effect action6 2      l il  qDpl ,$D  0lB nD <Doi?  oD H.UoC"? l _  btemporal convergence 8 ( B4 D( B4rB .D BDԔ B ZB /D s *DjJ 4ZB 0D s *DjJ8 84ZB 1D s *DjJ 4ZB 2D s *DjJF F4ZB 3D s *DjJ 4ZB 4D s *DjJT T4ZB 5D s *DjJ 4ZB 6D s *DjJb b4ZB 7D s *DjJ 4ZB 8D s *DjJp p4ZB 9D s *DjJ 4ZB :D s *DjJ~ ~4ZB ;D s *DjJ 4ZB D s *DjJ 4ZB ?D s *DjJ! ! 4ZB @D s *DjJ 4ZB AD s *DjJ/ / 4ZB BD s *DjJ 4ZB CD s *DjJ= = 4ZB DD s *DjJ 4ZB ED s *DjJK K 4ZB FD s *DjJ 4ZB GD s *DjJY Y 4ZB HD s *DjJ 4ZB ID s *DjJg g4ZB JD s *DjJ 4ZB KD s *DjJu u4ZB LD s *DjJ 4ZB MD s *DjJ 4ZB ND s *DjJ  4ZB OD s *DjJ 4ZB PD s *DjJ 4ZB QD s *DjJ 4ZB RD s *DjJ' '4ZB SD s *DjJ 4ZB TD s *DjJ5 54ZB UD s *DjJ 4ZB VD s *DjJC C4 WD <(}(   [ calendar time  b \D 0-C"?G ",$D0 ^ now as it inexorably progresses through time00/ l @  `D2 ,$D 0h ]D c B@ CDETF.Ԕ=|+3{ ~'>   ?9 < @ t@ t=@      `c"$ `@ ph ^D c B@ CDETF.Ԕ=|+3{ ~'>   ?9 < @ t@ t=@      `c"$ `@ pn _D 0"`@ =z @  DA 2 ,$D  0n D s B@ CDETF.AԔ=|+3{ ~'>   ?9 < @ t@ t=@      `c"$ `@ pn D s B@ CDETF.AԔ=|+3{ ~'>   ?9 < @ t@ t=@      `c"$ `@ pn D 0"`@ =1 cD  `D3GEHUjJ "`  ,$D 0 _intended future z ,Z kD `` ,$D  0 dD 68 U   eD 6< U   fD 6A  U   gD  `XEGsH<: "`,^ W divergent     hD  `IGsHY "`2\ W divergent     iD  `tGGqH֗ "`8Z adivergent futures  bD 0Q3+ ,$ 0 U<   aD <U-Zv,$0 _stochastic future ! rD HZH,G ',$@  0 u% convergent future&&% l ! ,p pD,D p,$D 0lB lD <DoA ,Pp mD BߺT_! L  atemporal divergence 2 }D@ s ZeBcCENH{dIZQ> cZXcZXZ`TZXZ`T"`pG C . ,$D 0 TOODA  D BhGHl   ,$D0 lt42  z k  D k ,$D0 D 6nk 0t3  planning & decision6 2       D HdtGCHj    nt34P    D <y ,$0 0Anticipating and controlling the future from now110 | D VA޽h ?FRACT081A"`cDgDhDiD|D}D D ~D D DD ff3333f^OVO___PPT106O.@8+.DL' `= @B DL' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +DX ' =%(%(D' =%(D8' =A@BB BB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*\D%(D' =-g6B fade*<3<*\DDH' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*D%(D#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_x-#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*DD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*DD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*DD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_hBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*DD$' =%(D' =%(Dt' =A@BB7BB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*D%(D' =+4 8?fCB#ppt_w*0.70BCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*DD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_hBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*DD' =-g6B fade*<3<*DD' =%(D' =%(D7' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*pD%(D'  =-s6Bwipe(down)*<3<*pDD' =%( D7' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*`D%(D' =-s6Bwipe(left)*<3<*`DD' =%(@D8' =A@BB BB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*aD%(D' =-g6B fade*<3<*aDD' =%(D' =%(Dt' =A@BBBB0B%()))D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*cD%(D'  =-s6Bwipe(down)*<3<*cDD' =%( D@' =A@BB BB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*bD%(D' =-o6Bdissolve*<3<*bDD' =%(D' =%(D7' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*kD%(D'  =-s6Bwipe(left)*<3<*kDD ' =%(D' =%(D7' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*qD%(D'  =-s6Bwipe(down)*<3<*qDD' =%( D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*rD%(D#' =+4 8?nCB!#ppt_x-#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*rDD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*rDD' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*rDD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_hBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*rDD7' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*D%(D' =-s6Bwipe(left)*<3<*DD' =%(D' =%(D7' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*|D%(D' =-s6Bwipe(left)*<3<*|DD' =%(DD' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*}D%(D' =-s6Bwipe(left)*<3<*}DD' =%(D' =%(D7' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*D%(D' =-s6Bwipe(down)*<3<*DD ' =%(DH ' =%(Dt' =A@BB7BB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*~D%(D' =+4 8?fCB#ppt_w*0.70BCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*~DD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_hBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*~DD' =-g6B fade*<3<*~DDt' =A@BB7BB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*D%(D'  =+4 8?fCB#ppt_w*0.70BCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*DD'  =+4 8?\CB#ppt_hBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*DD'  =-g6B fade*<3<*DD' =%(D' =%(Dg' =4@BB7BB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*D%(D' =+4 8?fCB#ppt_w*0.70BCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*DD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_hBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*DD' =-g6B fade*<3<*DD ' =%(D; ' =%(Dt' =A@BB7BB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*D%(D'  =+4 8?fCB#ppt_w*0.70BCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*DD'  =+4 8?\CB#ppt_hBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*DD'  =-g6B fade*<3<*DDg' =4@BB7BB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*D%(D' =+4 8?fCB#ppt_w*0.70BCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*DD' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_hBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*DD' =-g6B fade*<3<*D+0+0+~D0 ++0+D0 ++0+D0 ++0+\D0 ++0+cD0 ++0+bD0 ++0+aD0 ++0+rD0 ++0+}D0 ++0+D0 +50 ^N0 ZZl{lPX(  l  l NԔ<@  himmutable past  2 l Htf3vv^Ԕ" >;  ,$@0 >  2 l H ̙^G"  B  ^B  l 6DԔ{@ @ r pB  l HDԔj @ q pB  l HDԔm> t2 l@  BUCENHZIKQ̙v UKUKK`TKK`T" P ~R l HZYYYԔ" G 2  l <C"?;E  W the world   2 l ZCENH$NQ> `T`T`T`T7 . MF hR l h R l BG H  XR rt18   l 0Xh @ 2    l B,GH JD rt28  F il  l pl lB l <Doi?  l H.U$oC"? l _  btemporal convergence F ( B4 l ( B4rB l BDԔ B ZB l s *DjJ 4ZB l s *DjJ8 84ZB  l s *DjJ 4ZB !l s *DjJF F4ZB "l s *DjJ 4ZB #l s *DjJT T4ZB $l s *DjJ 4ZB %l s *DjJb b4ZB &l s *DjJ 4ZB 'l s *DjJp p4ZB (l s *DjJ 4ZB )l s *DjJ~ ~4ZB *l s *DjJ 4ZB +l s *DjJ 4ZB ,l s *DjJ 4ZB -l s *DjJ 4ZB .l s *DjJ! ! 4ZB /l s *DjJ 4ZB 0l s *DjJ/ / 4ZB 1l s *DjJ 4ZB 2l s *DjJ= = 4ZB 3l s *DjJ 4ZB 4l s *DjJK K 4ZB 5l s *DjJ 4ZB 6l s *DjJY Y 4ZB 7l s *DjJ 4ZB 8l s *DjJg g4ZB 9l s *DjJ 4ZB :l s *DjJu u4ZB ;l s *DjJ 4ZB l s *DjJ 4ZB ?l s *DjJ 4ZB @l s *DjJ 4ZB Al s *DjJ' '4ZB Bl s *DjJ 4ZB Cl s *DjJ5 54ZB Dl s *DjJ 4ZB El s *DjJC C4 Fl < 6}(   [ calendar time  F @  Hl 2 h Il c B@ CDETF.Ԕ=|+3{ ~'>   ?9 < @ t@ t=@      `c"$ `@ ph Jl c B@ CDETF.Ԕ=|+3{ ~'>   ?9 < @ t@ t=@      `c"$ `@ pn Kl 0"`@ =F @  LlA 2 n Ml s B@ CDETF.Ԕ=|+3{ ~'>   ?9 < @ t@ t=@      `c"$ `@ pn Nl s B@ CDETF.Ԕ=|+3{ ~'>   ?9 < @ t@ t=@      `c"$ `@ pn Ol 0"`@ = Pl  `<GEHUjJ "`   _intended future F ,Z Ql Z% Rl 0A U   Sl 0F U   Tl 0J  U   Ul ZHGsH<: "`,^ adivergent futures  Vl ZRGsHY "`2\ adivergent futures  Wl ZVGqH֗ "`8Z adivergent futures  Xl 0tZ3+  U<   Yl <_-Zv _stochastic future  Zl HlcH,G ' u% convergent future&&% F ! ,p [l ,D plB \l <DoA ,Pp ]l Bߺb! L  atemporal divergence 2 ^l@ c Z,lBcCENH{dIZQ> cZXcZXZ`TZXZ`T"`pG C .  TOODA  _l BjG&Hl    lt42   bl HuGCHj    nt34P   el 0 {j ,$0 cPerceivable world 2  l  x  hl x ,$D 0 fl <H +x  ^Cognitive edge  ZB gl s *D "  il NGkH0*jJ,$D  0 `journey thus far @ kl 0Ԉ ,$D0 jchart: received and constructed world view that remains extant and authoritative for a single OODA cycle. &k 2 f  ll 0x,$D0 mperceivable world: the world that the entity can observe at t1 in relationship to the chart. This is the external reality (W1) the entity can observe and understand in W2 (i.e., within its "cognitive edge" 2 +      c    ml 0ؙ}i,$D 0 journey thus far: the memory of history at t2 as constructed in W2. Memories tend to focus on prospective and retrospective associations with events (event-relative time) and can also be chronological in nature (calendar time)     i  +    nl HܥGHtjJ k ,$D0 Uchart . Gl 0C"?G  ^ now as it inexorably progresses through time00/  ol 0sE,$D 0 4recent past: recent sensory data in calendar time concerning the perceivable world at t1 (i.e., observations) the entity can project forward to construct a concept of the present situation (i.e., at t3), or some future situation. Recent past is constructed in W2 based on what existed in W1 leading up to t1.5  K    o    g      pl H@GkHjJ C ,$D0 [ recent past    R ql 0i,$D0 Present: calendar time: when an action is executed. perceived present: the entity's constructed understanding in W2 of its situation in the world at time t3; actual present: the entity's instantaneous situation in W1 at time t4.4   U      5       rl H0χGWHjJ o `  ,$D0 aperceived present  sl 0XӇg9,$D0 JdProximal future: the entity's anticipated future situation in the world (W2) at t4 as a consequence of its actions at t1+j, where j is a time-step unit typically on completing the next OODA cycle. This anticipation is based on observed recent past, perceived present and forecasting of the future up to t4.3 A    $             02 tl ZCENH$NQԔ `T`T`T`T"` i,$D 02 ul@ s ZBcCENH{dIZQԔ cZXcZXZ`TZXZ`T"`i' ,$D 0 XOODA . wl NG 9H= "`@\,$D0 nt1+j2  1 xl  `GHjJ "`% g ,$D0 _proximal future  yl 0d,$D0 pnIntended future: the entity's intended goal or situation in the world farther in the future (at tgs, where gs is a goal-state and tgs is the moment when that goal is realised). Intentions are not necessarily time specific but are always associated with an event or goal-state (i.e., the arrival of a set point in calendar time can also be considered to be an event).o Q            >`/ zl NG>vH "`D`,$D0 otgs2  | {l 0a,$D0 " convergent future: the entity s mapping of the proximal future against an intended future in which tgs can be specified. t1 and t1+j can also be mapped to tgs and then tgs+1 forecasted in the form of some subsequent goal. 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HallWilliam Hall21Microsoft Office PowerPoint@8@@$pGLg   W  y--$xx--'@BComic Sans MS-. 3+2 WEVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY OF ."System3-@BComic Sans MS-. 32 \ SPECIES AND .-@BComic Sans MS-. 32 a ORGANIZATIONSP.-@"Verdana-. 32 fhttp://www.orgsD.-@"Verdana-. 3 2 f-.-@"Verdana-. 32 f evolution.-@"Verdana-. 3 2 f*-.-@"Verdana-. 32 f+ knowledge.net.-3-ee=-@Times New Roman-.  2 t1.---$ --'@BComic Sans MS-. 2 OASIS SEMINAR .-@BComic Sans MS-.  2 H.-@BComic Sans MS-. 2 N 27 JULY 2007.-@BComic Sans MS-. *2 #UTime Value of Knowledge .-@BComic Sans MS-.  2 *s.-@BComic Sans MS-.  2 1Wtime.-@BComic Sans MS-.  2 1a-.-@BComic Sans MS-. !2 1ebased frameworks w.-@BComic Sans MS-. '2 7Zfor Valuing knowledgeg.-@BComic Sans MS-. %2 >hWilliam P. Hall, PhD.-@BComic Sans MS-. W2 AR5Australian Centre for Science, Innovation and SocietyC.-@BComic Sans MS-. *2 DeUniversity of Melbourne .-@BComic Sans MS-. 3%2 Ggwhall@unimelb.edu.au.-3-GgG-@BComic Sans MS-. $2 NhPeter Dalmaris, PhDu.-@BComic Sans MS-. 2 Qa Futureshock.-@BComic Sans MS-. 2 QrResearch, Sydney.-@BComic Sans MS-. 2 XjSteven Else, PhD.-@BComic Sans MS-. !2 [RCenter for Publich.-@BComic Sans MS-.  2 [i-.-@BComic Sans MS-. :2 [j"Private Enterprise, Alexandria, VA.-@BComic Sans MS-. *2 beChristopher Martin, PhD .-@BComic Sans MS-.  2 esand.-@BComic Sans MS-. 2 hiWayne Philp, PhD.-@BComic Sans MS-. K2 kU-Land Operations Division, DSTO, Edinburgh, SA.-՜.+,D՜.+,X    $ On-screen ShowThe University of Melbourneo ArialComic Sans MSTimes New Roman Wingdings 2Verdana WingdingsPersonalResearchOASIS SEMINAR 27 JULY 2007Some questions Introduction$Paradigms and todays presentationsEpistemology paradigmKnowledge building cyclesOrganisational paradigm-Bounded rationality & limits to organisation/Competition and survival in harsh environments'Achieving strategic power in the world/Info transformations in the autopoietic entity Another view Slide 13 Slide 14 Slide 15Utility value of knowledgeValue and time%OODA cycle times and strategic power Conclusions Slide 20$Cybernetics and emerging complexity  Fonts UsedDesign Template Slide Titles 8@ _PID_HLINKSA$http://www.belisarius.com/)http://www.d-n-i.net/fcs/boyd_thesis.htmLhttp://www.belisarius.com/modern_business_strategy/boyd/boyds_ooda_loop.pptmailto:whall@unimelb.edu.au)http://www.orgs-evolution-knowledge.net/Lhttp://www.belisarius.com/modern_business_strategy/boyd/boyds_ooda_loop.ppt$_㘰 William HallWilliam Hall  !"#$%&'()*+,-./023456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~Root EntrydO)Pictures$aCurrent UserSummaryInformation(PowerPoint Document(1DocumentSummaryInformation8