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(R Z aEP ) ZĢ(QE( (IRvG:T)&6:R!ȥh*6lӈ$SJB%87֐)T`qK@Q@Š(QIۚ-Q@Q@Q@ EP ((4u!&%Q@)(4S p4Sib CIJi+9n *@((QJ)ڴ)QEQERJ(sIKEV%QH)QE(((`QEQE{R( !  d2http://www.belisarius.com4http://www.belisarius.com/~John BoydPhttp://www.d-n-i.net/fcs/boyd_thesis.htm"OODA Loop processhttp://www.belisarius.com/modern_business_strategy/boyd/boyds_ooda_loop.pptz&(whall@unimelb.edu.au6mailto:whall@unimelb.edu.au(Nhttp://www.orgs-evolution-knowledge.netPhttp://www.orgs-evolution-knowledge.net/4Boydhttp://www.belisarius.com/modern_business_strategy/boyd/boyds_ooda_loop.ppt/ 0DArialngs2manll~-a0DComic Sans MSnll~-a0B DTimes New Romanll~-a00DWingdings 2manll~-a0@DVerdanas 2manll~-a0"PDWingdings2manll~-a0 C  .  @n?" dd@  @@`` TL@'    2MAL=W\e| !"#$%&')?$$R$-i ]5_\Fϣɻ$a 0AA ff̙f3|@8fuN ʚ;e8ʚ;g4cdcd -a0pU p= <4dddd8))0l~ <4BdBd8K*0l'9___PPT10 qq6___PPT9&(4?  O  =gF8OASIS SEMINAR  27 JULY 2007 &Time Value of Knowledge  time-based frameworks for Valuing knowledge William P. Hall, PhD Australian Centre for Science, Innovation and Society University of Melbourne whall@unimelb.edu.au Peter Dalmaris, PhD Futureshock Research, Sydney Steven Else, PhD Center for Public-Private Enterprise, Alexandria, VA Christopher Martin, PhD and Wayne Philp, PhD Land Operations Division, DSTO, Edinburgh, SABZF   ? H    &>0 Some questions <What is knowledge? What is an organisation? How is knowledge important to organisations? How can knowledge-intensive organisations value knowledge and knowledge-related activities? How does this value change and depreciate with time? We need a vocabulary for considering how cognition, knowledge and time interact! "=YH         Introduction  My own background evolutionary biology, epistemology, computers, defence industry content and knowledge management emergence of knowledge in complex adaptive systems Background to this project a day of brainstorming at DSTO Land Ops Division biologically based paradigm of organization Karl Popper s epistemology Maturana and Varela s autopoiesis need to gain & maintain strategic power in competition bounded rationality and limits to organisation improving knowledge intensive organisational processes1,=1,  =   A   G  s       FParadigms and today s presentations# RThomas Kuhn s (1962, 1982) concepts scientific paradigms held by communities paradigmatic incommensurability this presentation a product of an emerging community developing a biological theory of organizational knowledge KM consultants/practitioners working in industry most with PhD s academically unaffiliated (but looking for a home) planning a workshop,  Theory, Ontology and Management of Organizational Knowledge , to bring players together the group framework combines several paradigms from the fringes of theories of knowledge and organisationp$Ipu$Ipu)  Epistemology paradigm Karl Popper s (1972) evolutionary epistemology Knowledge is solutions or claims to solutions for problems of life All claims to know are fallible (knowledge is constructed, its truth cannot be proven) Three ontological worlds W1  uninterpreted physics and dynamics of reality W2 - cybernetics of life or the dynamics of subjective experience;  dispositional and  subjective knowledge W3  objectively codified products of knowledge (e.g. the logical contents of DNA molecules, books and libraries, computer memories), the  built environment Knowledge grows through trial & error elimination Pn ! TT/TS ! EE ! Pn+1 /ZZ?Z2ZZZ/1l2@H@H@Z i 2   Knowledge building cycles   Organisational paradigm"    Maturana and Varela (1980) Autopoiesis (cognition) is the definition of life Criteria after Varela et al. (1974) Bounded (demarcated from the environment) Complex (identifiable components within boundary) Mechanistic (driven by cybernetically regulated dissipative processes) Self-referential (boundaries internally determined) Self-produced (intrinsically produces own components) Autonomous (self-produced components are necessary and sufficient to produce the system). Organisations are complex living systems (Hall 2005)qZgZ5Z J"+ <# ) P( D i g  ' ,Bounded rationality & limits to organisation"    Need for knowledge-based decisions & actions Limited time & resources to process information in a relentlessly changing world Bounds to individual rationality (Simon 1955, 1957) Time Cognitive processing power Organisational limitations Arrow (1974) Greiner (1972-1998) Else (2004)p -~  -} .Competition and survival in harsh environments. xLiving systems (i.e., orgs) are dissipative grounded in non-equilibrium thermodynamics Resources to feed dissipative processes are limited degraded by use Competition in a finite world direct competition for resources To grow/survive living systems must maintain at least some strategic control over external environment & competitors knowledge = solution to problems of life-+4!u)-+4!u )  &Achieving strategic power in the world&   .Info transformations in the autopoietic entity  Another view Utility value of knowledge TPattee (1995)  Knowledge is potentially useful information about something. ... By useful information or knowledge I mean information in the evolutionary sense of information for construction and control, measured or selected information, or information ultimately necessary for survival Utility value of knowledge (Cornejo 2003) Direct direct relationship with improvements in processes and operations, usually derived from the knowledge acquired by members of the organization. Indirect When the organization knows that it is benefiting from the acquired knowledge but can t identify the mechanism with clarity, and it therefore can t find a reliable way to measure and value it.* *  p        Value and time vKnowledge value function claim s accuracy reflecting the true state of existence (i.e., the degree that rational actions based on the knowledge produce predictable results) claim s applicability to particular circumstances quality and effects observed when knowledge enacted Time issues relentless advance temporal lag of constructed W2 vs actual W1 old and multiply tested knowledge vs depreciation tacit (uncriticisable) vs explicit issuesL  \R- $OODA cycle times and strategic power$ Concerns in the decision & action cycle rationality bounded in time decision risk intimidation and dithering about uncertainties Danger of stuck OODA ( analysis paralysis ) decisions by  running out of time or  fiat paralysis blocks dependent decisions Knowledge that is not refreshed depreciates Minimax increased observation time gives more detail for a larger perceivable world and a more accurate model of it striving too long to reduce uncertainty gives more time for random events and other actors to create a stochastic future diverging from the intentional future, leading to less relevant world views and less effective control information Advantage from changing world before competitors complete their own OODA loops(PPRP,PPXPOP(R,X  O.+    Conclusions  Delaying decision & action without new observation and orientation depretiates the knowledge on which they depend increasing unpredictability of results of actions Operating inside a competitor s (OODA) loop breaks its external bonds with its environment and creates mismatches between the real world and its perceptions of that world. Initial confusion and disorder can degenerate into internal dissolution that erodes the will to resist. Current world-knowledge doesn t age well, but& Some kinds of knowledge can become more valuable with time. The most valuable knowledge may be  old knowledge that has survived testing in many OODA loops as cultural heritage. Rapid decision also benefits from cultural paradigms that don't have to be revisited often (Boyd) At the tactical level, one needs to deal aggressively with latency issues.\rZHZ0Z`ZrH0`6C L 4>0    Any questions?$0 #Cybernetics and emerging complexity# < Cybernetics" is the regulation, communication and application of control information, beginning at the biophysical level  System is a set of distinguishable components that dynamically interact to facilitate and cybernetically regulate the flow of information, matter or energy  Complex system a system whose emergent behavior cannot readily be predicted from the behaviors of its components (i.e., non-linear/chaotic)  Levels of organisation . Systems may be complex at hierarchically different levels of structure (Salthe 1983)  focal level . A selected level of analysis for observing a system in a hierarchically complex world. 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Mn00  < < # y < 6 ql MP00  < 6{ Mn00   < 6ۊ2 N+100  < < # y < 6Il NEE00 :N    <   DN    <   <B < # > C   < rBzCcDEF3cz3c @`  yDN   H !<   H<B "< # >   #< rBlCmDEFml6m @`  HDN    $<   <B %< # >  p &< rBvCoDEFSvoES @` C DN  '< <B (< # >f )< rBzCeDEFez\*e @`LDN J *< J<B +<B # >Q ,< rBmCnDEFnm8n @`NJDN S -< S<B .<B # >L /< rBzCjDEF=jz=j @`)SDN [ 0< [<B 1<B # >$&% 2< rBlCmDEFml7m @`"[l@N  '+  3<  '+  4< B(C(DELFV' '(('%##!!#$&((&' (,@`'  5< B(C(DELFV& ( (((&%#! !#%'((( (& (,@`?* 6< B(C(DETF^& ((((&$#!  !#%'((' & ,0@`Ks 7< B)C(DELFV' ) )))'%#"!#$&((( (' (,@`b~ 8< B(C(DELFV' (((('%#!!#%&(( &' (,@`.V 9< B(C(DELFV& ((((&%#!!"$&((&& (,@`"  :< B(C(DELFV$ & ((&$#!!#%&(((($ (,@`?* ;< B*C&DETF^& (**(&$#! !#%&&&&& ,0@`Kq << B(C&DELFV&((((&$"!!"$&&&&&(,@`\~* =< B(C&DETF^' (((('%#!!#%&&&&&' ,0@`'O >< B(C(DELFV' ( ((('%#!!#$&((&' (,@`  ?< B*C'DELFV' (**('%#! !#%''' '' (,@`: @< B*C&DELFV'(**('%#!!#$&& $'(,@`Fl A< B*C'DELFV' (**('%#! !#%''%' (,@`Ovy* B< B*C&DETF^' (**('%#!!#%&&%!' ,0@`C C< B)C&DELFV& ( ))(&$"!!#%&&&&& (,@` * D< B*C&DETF^( * ***(&$#!#$&& $( ,0@` - * E< B*C&DETF^( * ***('%#!#$&&$( ,0@`r6 \ * F< B+C$DETF^(*++*(&$#!#$$$$(,0@`9e d * G< B,C%DETF^* , ,,,*('%!#%%% %* ,0@` + * H< B+C#DETF^( *++*(&$# !####( ,0@`  * I< B+C#DETF^) ++++)(&$!####) ,0@`  * J< B-C!DETF^+ ----+)(&  !!!!+ ,0@`N {7 * K< B-C!DETF^+ - ---+)(&  !!!!+ ,0@`> >_ * L< B-C DETF^+ ----+*(&!    & + ,0@`f   M< B/CDELFV. / ///.,*( . (,@`  B N< B/CDE`Fj- ////-+*( - 24@`S  * O< B1CDETF^- /1111/-+ - ,0@` @ * P< B3CDETF^- / 1 331/-,(* - ,0@`  * Q< B3CDETF^/ 1 33331/.   / ,0@`  * R< B2CDETF^/ 1 2 2221/-% & / ,0@`> p& * S< B4C DETF^/ 124421/-    / ,0@`  )+ * T< B4CDETF^-/02 4 4 20/    -,0@`  + * U< B3CDETF^./1333 3 1 / ,  *.,0@`d * V< B1CDETF^*,./11/.,#   !*,0@` Q * W< B/CDETF^&(*,-//-, &,0@`  * X< B+C#DETF^#!$#&#(!*++*(  #!,0@` * Y< B*C&DETF^!&#&%&&&(%*#*!( &    !&,0@`m t B Z< B(C*DE`Fj(!*#*$(&&(%(#&!$  !(24@`9 @ a j * [< B$C*DETF^&(*!*#($&$%$#$! &,0@` . 4 * \< B%C+DETF^*++ +"+#*%(%&#$    $*,0@`  * ]< B#C-DETF^*+--+!*#(#&!$ *,0@` * ^< B!C-DETF^*+--+!*!(!&!$ !*,0@` W  _< BC-DELFV,----,*(' ,(,@`f  E  `< BC/DELFV+-//-+*(& +(,@`B a  * a< BC/DETF^.////.,*(" '.,0@` <  b< BC/DELFV,-//-,*(& ,(,@` W  c< BC/DELFV+-////-+*  +(,@`  D* d< BC1DETF^+-/11/-+*   +,0@`   e< BC0DELFV+-/00/-+*  +(,@`   f< BC1DELFV-/1111/-+  -(,@` M ~* g< BC1DETF^-/1111/-+   -,0@`d  < h< BC0DELFV+-/00/-+)  +(,@`G c  i< BCDELFV      (,@`5 E  j< rBcCzDEFcNzcN @` Co sN  @+  k<  @+ < l< #  @  m< 68 5 }q3 NTS00  n< 685fL M100   o< 65 Eq NTS00  p< 6\5f M200   q< 65 T N" 00  r< 6"5 T N" 00  s< 6\&5 TS N" 00  t< 6$5 eT N" 00  u< 60 5 -T N" 00  v< 6L45 `  NTS00  w< 625_Q   Mm00  < x< #  y  y< 6=5  l MP00  z< 6B5 ?  Mn00  < {< # y |< 6G5 ql MP00  }< 6dL5{ Mn00   ~< 6 C  < rBzCcDEF3cz3c @`  yDN   H <   H<B < # >   < rBlCmDEFml6m @`  HDN    <   <B < # >  p < rBvCoDEFSvoES @` C DN  < <B < # >f < rBzCeDEFez\*e @`LDN J < J<B <B # >Q < rBmCnDEFnm8n @`NJDN S < S<B <B # >L < rBzCjDEF=jz=j @`)SDN [ < [<B <B # >$&% < rBlCmDEFml7m @`"[< < #  @  < 6a5 }q3 NTS00  < 6f5fL M100   < 6dj5 Eq NTS00  < 6(o5f M200   < 6ps5 T N" 00  < 6q5 T N" 00  < 6(}5 TS N" 00  < 6p5 eT N" 00  < 65 -T N" 00  < 6D{5 `  NTS00  < 6`5_Q   Mm00  < < #  y  < 6h5  l MP00  < 65& '  H 0   < < # y < 685 ql MP00  < 6@5{ Mn00   < 652 N+100  < < # y < 6$5Il NEE00 MN  '+  <  '+ DN    <   <B < # > C  < rBzCcDEF3cz3c @`  yDN   H <   H<B < # >   < rBlCmDEFml6m @`  HDN    <   <B < # >  p < rBvCoDEFSvoES @` C DN    <   <B < # > C  < rBzCcDEF3cz3c @`  yDN   H <   H<B < # >   < rBlCmDEFml6m @`  HDN    <   <B < # >  p < rBvCoDEFSvoES @` C DN  < <B < # >f < rBzCeDEFez\*e @`LDN J < J<B <B # >Q < rBmCnDEFnm8n @`NJDN S < S<B <B # >L < rBzCjDEF=jz=j @`)SDN [ < [<B <B # >$&% < rBlCmDEFml7m @`"[l@N  '+  <  '+  < B(C(DELFV' '(('%##!!#$&((&' (,@`'  < B(C(DELFV& ( (((&%#! !#%'((( (& (,@`?* < B(C(DETF^& ((((&$#!  !#%'((' & ,0@`Ks < B)C(DELFV' ) )))'%#"!#$&((( (' (,@`b~ < B(C(DELFV' (((('%#!!#%&(( &' (,@`.V < B(C(DELFV& ((((&%#!!"$&((&& (,@`"  < B(C(DELFV$ & ((&$#!!#%&(((($ (,@`?* < B*C&DETF^& (**(&$#! !#%&&&&& ,0@`Kq < B(C&DELFV&((((&$"!!"$&&&&&(,@`\~* < B(C&DETF^' (((('%#!!#%&&&&&' ,0@`'O < B(C(DELFV' ( ((('%#!!#$&((&' (,@`  < B*C'DELFV' (**('%#! !#%''' '' (,@`: < B*C&DELFV'(**('%#!!#$&& $'(,@`Fl < B*C'DELFV' (**('%#! !#%''%' (,@`Ovy* < B*C&DETF^' (**('%#!!#%&&%!' ,0@`C < B)C&DELFV& ( ))(&$"!!#%&&&&& (,@` * < B*C&DETF^( * ***(&$#!#$&& $( ,0@` - * < B*C&DETF^( * ***('%#!#$&&$( ,0@`r6 \ * < B+C$DETF^(*++*(&$#!#$$$$(,0@`9e d * < B,C%DETF^* , ,,,*('%!#%%% %* ,0@` + * < B+C#DETF^( *++*(&$# !####( ,0@`  * < B+C#DETF^) ++++)(&$!####) ,0@`  * < B-C!DETF^+ ----+)(&  !!!!+ ,0@`N {7 * < B-C!DETF^+ - ---+)(&  !!!!+ ,0@`> >_ * < B-C DETF^+ ----+*(&!    & + ,0@`f   < B/CDELFV. / ///.,*( . (,@`  B < B/CDE`Fj- ////-+*( - 24@`S  * < B1CDETF^- /1111/-+ - ,0@` @ * < B3CDETF^- / 1 331/-,(* - ,0@`  * < B3CDETF^/ 1 33331/.   / ,0@`  * < B2CDETF^/ 1 2 2221/-% & / ,0@`> p& * < B4C DETF^/ 124421/-    / ,0@`  )+ * < B4CDETF^-/02 4 4 20/    -,0@`  + * < B3CDETF^./1333 3 1 / ,  *.,0@`d * < B1CDETF^*,./11/.,#   !*,0@` Q * < B/CDETF^&(*,-//-, &,0@`  * < B+C#DETF^#!$#&#(!*++*(  #!,0@` * < B*C&DETF^!&#&%&&&(%*#*!( &    !&,0@`m t B < B(C*DE`Fj(!*#*$(&&(%(#&!$  !(24@`9 @ a j * < B$C*DETF^&(*!*#($&$%$#$! &,0@` . 4 * < B%C+DETF^*++ +"+#*%(%&#$    $*,0@`  * < B#C-DETF^*+--+!*#(#&!$ *,0@` * < B!C-DETF^*+--+!*!(!&!$ !*,0@` W  < BC-DELFV,----,*(' ,(,@`f  E  < BC/DELFV+-//-+*(& +(,@`B a  * < BC/DETF^.////.,*(" '.,0@` <  < BC/DELFV,-//-,*(& ,(,@` W  < BC/DELFV+-////-+*  +(,@`  D* < BC1DETF^+-/11/-+*   +,0@`   < BC0DELFV+-/00/-+*  +(,@`   < BC1DELFV-/1111/-+  -(,@` M ~* < BC1DETF^-/1111/-+   -,0@`d  < = BC0DELFV+-/00/-+)  +(,@`G c  = BCDELFV      (,@`5 E  = rBcCzDEFcNzcN @` Co  = Z051 ?s o iKnowledge is constructed by living systems TSs may be tacitly embodied in in the structural dispositions of the individual entity, or TSs may be explicitly expressed in words as a hypothesis subject to intersubjective criticism Objective expression and criticism lets our theories die in our stead Through cyclic iteration, tested solutions can approach realityj0 uP_+ T IF@T+X  $HRZ = H|51? p  E iteration 0   H < 0޽h ? ff3333f___PPT10i.!>{+D=' = @B + 0 ^N0 ,$(  ,r , S 5  5 r , S 5 5 H , 0޽h ? ff3333f___PPT10i.0F}f+D=' = @B + 0 ^N0 8$(  8r 8 S 5  5 r 8 S `5E 5 H 8 0޽h ? ff3333f___PPT10i.pv1i+D=' = @B + 0 ^N0 P$(  r  S H7  7 r  S  7 7 H  0޽h ? ff3333f___PPT10i.LR+D=' = @B +5 0 ^N0 44.1@4(  @r @ S 5  7 ~ @ H ?" @ 07 Xt KAchieving strategic power depends critically on learning more, better and faster, and reducing decision cycle times compared to competitors. See http://www.belisarius.com.pU2    >0 @ B7|?"y>$  [A"0(2 2 @ Td7|?#" `2  [O"0(2   @ N7 ?"3 OBSERVE (Results of Test)00(2   @ # 20e0e    B`CDE F @  jJ 8c8c     ?1 d0u0@Ty2 NP'p<'pA)BCD|E||`@S"B  @ N#7 ?"=  nOBSERVATION PARADIGM"0(2  ~  @ H+=?"rR  @ B\)7 ?"g nEXTERNAL INFORMATION"0(2  ~  @ H&?"VH6  @ BL-7 ?"H .  pCHANGING CIRCUMSTANCES"0(2  ~ @ HK|?" rR[  @ N/7 ?"r c`  *UNFOLDING ENVIRONMENTAL RESULTS OF ACTIONS"+0(2+ * ~ @ HK|?"^x>  @ N47 ?"  dORIENT&0(2 ~ @ HK|?"_  ? ~ @ HK|?"^>  @  f :7|?"v.  [D"0(2  @ N7 ?" {DECIDE (Hypothesis)00(2   @@ # 20e0e    B`CDE F @  jJ 8c8c     ?1 d0u0@Ty2 NP'p<'pA)BCD|E||`@S" z @ HC7?"   [O"0(2 %2 @ 3 rLG71?"p S  uCULTURE PARADIGMS PROCESSES"0(2  2 @ ZK71?"u % nDNA GENETIC HERITAGE"0(2  2 @ 3 rO71?"v RP  kMEMORY OF HISTORY"0(2  2 @ 3 rS7|1?#" `%y  _INPUT"0(2  82 @ 3 r@X7|1?"%/ y  ANALYSIS SYNTHESIS>0(2     B @ # lDjJ?" B  @ # lDjJ?" B B !@@ # lDjJ?":"B "@ # lDjJ?"l M B #@ # lDjJ?" OB $@@ # lDjJ?" VB %@ # lDjJ?" K (B &@@ # lDjJ?"y  B '@ # lDjJ?"I IB (@ # lDjJ?"7  =  )@ N_7 ?"& r ACT (Test)0 0(2   *@ N8f7 ?"6y wGUIDANCE AND CONTROL PARADIGM"0(2  ~ +@ HxY|?"\    ,@ Bk7 ?"t   /UNFOLDING INTERACTION WITH EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT"00(20 /  -@ C F0e0e    B CDEF @  jJ 8c8c     ?1 d0u0@Ty2 NP'p<'pA)BCD|E|| 4  @S" }t  .@ S L0e0e    BCDEF @  > 8c8c     ?1 d0u0@Ty2 NP'p<'pA)BCD|E|| @S"   /@ C >0e0e    BCDE F @  jJ 8c8c     ?1 d0u0@Ty2 NP'p<'pA)BCD|E||@S"r"/ 0@ H4t71?   John Boyd's OODA Loop process0>0 >0 H @ 0޽h ? ff3333f___PPT10i.m+D=' = @B + 0 ^N0 TCLC LLHLB(  H H s BCDEF1?&& Qic:K.Wiic) tt   ) ]t : . 4 K c# i n n:4W:@ciQ. LMP@O, H c BCDEF1?77L] E/5XKizu( @ c ~ w c [ ` X T P L J F F F L# L# Lt i un ~  @ P i t | h{ X I L L L z@ uLLP@         `~ H s *y7  7 >R   H3 ~ H BCq DEF`@@-"kA $--GMpUi`UKF<<B)B=Zbbw,c2_Z7t K js \ S Y `F x   7 \ e s yy Z Z ` YP q -0@                      H BCq DEF`@@-"kA $--GMpUi`UKF<<B)B=Zbbw,c2_Z7t K js \ S Y `F x   7 \ e s yy Z Z ` YP q -0@                     0  H H4|71? 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